This Health Headline Missed

I left you with a thought in Tuesday’s Memo: always be suspicious when results are presented as percentages. The reason is that while they could be absolutely true, they can be meaningless in the real world. I tried to obtain the actual abstract but was unsuccessful. Almost all the pertinent numbers were given, so let’s take a closer look at the press release.

The researchers reported that there were 28,345 adverse reports between 2017 and 2025 that pertained to people 18 to 34. The Adverse Events Reporting Database is open to the public, so I checked on the total number of events reported for all reasons during that time. The average was 2.2 million reports per year. That means during that time, 28,345 events related to food or supplements were reported out of 198 million reports. That works out to be just 0.14%, less than one-sixth of one percent.

But wait. Of the 28,345 reported adverse events related to food or supplements, just 854 were related to caffeine or other energy-boosting substances — over nine years. That’s just 95 events per year or 0.004%. Need I go on? This is not an epidemic affecting young adults.

In that same time frame, the estimated doses of energy drinks that were sold averaged 10 billion cans per year. Add in all the supplements from powders and pills, and you can see how many caffeine and stimulant drinks and supplements are consumed. With just 854 reports over nine years, I don’t see this as an issue at all. It is more likely a rare genetic defect or simple abuse by overconsumption; I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn a 19-year-old guzzled thirteen energy drinks to get through finals, and that it didn’t turn out well for him.

This health headline is a clear miss. However, next week, I’m going to cover one on a completely different topic that is a definite concern.

What are you prepared to do today?

        Dr. Chet

Reference: https://newsroom.heart.org/news/energy-drinks-stimulant-products-linked-to-cardiac-arrest-heart-attack-in-young-adults